基于广义出行费用的城市路网行程时间可靠性  

Travel Time Reliability of Urban Road Network Based on Generalized Travel Cost

作　　者：冷军强[1,2] 张亚平[2] 赵兴奎 王鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学汽车工程学院,山东威海264209 [2]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [3]山东东泰工程咨询有限公司,山东淄博256410

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2010年第7期133-137,共5页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E200940);山东省科技发展计划项目(2009GG20008020);威海市科技发展计划项目(2009-3-93)

摘　　要：为体现出行者路径选择行为,准确评价路网行程时间可靠性,采用行程时间均值和行程时间均方差的加权和定义广义出行费用,以不同的加权系数反映出行者对待风险的态度。从路段层面定义行程时间可靠性,以广义出行费用最小化为目标构建SUE模型,建立基于广义出行费用的路网行程时间可靠性模型。结合模型特点,给出Monte Carlo仿真和交通规划模型相结合的求解算法。并在一个小型测试路网上进行了验证,结果表明:出行者对待风险的不同态度对行程时间可靠性具有明显的影响,保守型出行者将使路网行程时间可靠性有所提高;所建分配模型能够较真实地反映出行者的路径选择行为,使行程时间可靠性分析更加准确。To describe travelers＇route .choice characteristics and accurately evaluate travel time reliability on road network, the concept of generalized travel cost was introduced. It was defined as the weighted sum of the mean travel time and the mean square deviation, in which the weighted coefficients reflect the different travelers＇attitude towards uncertainty. The travel time reliability was defined on the level of link, and the stochastic user equilibrium （SUE） assignment model was formulated on the assumption of minimization of generalized travel cost in choosing the path. The travel time reliability model based on generalized travel cost was developed. Based on the characteristics of the models, the algorithm that integrated Monte Carlo simulation and traffic planning model was put forward, and a numerical case was also provided to demonstrate the practicality of the proposed model. The results show that （ 1 ） the travelers＇attitude towards uncertainty has an obvious impact on the travel time reliability; （2） the conservative attitude can improve the travel time reliability of road network in some Moreover, the proposed model could well reflect the route choice in reality and make the analysis of travel time reliability more accurate.

关 键 词：交通工程 行程时间可靠性 蒙特卡罗仿真 城市路网 广义出行费用 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]