基于改进灰色-马尔可夫链的轨道不平顺发展预测方法  

Track Irregularity Development Prediction Method Based on Grey-Markov Chain Model

作　　者：曲建军[1] 高亮[1] 辛涛[1] 郑晓莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2010年第4期107-111,共5页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50878018);铁道部科技研究开发计划项目资助(2008G031-Ⅰ)

摘　　要：轨道不平顺的发展受轨道、荷载、自然等因素的影响,它们的综合作用使轨道不平顺的发展过程呈现出趋势性和随机性特征.将灰色GM(1,1)预测理论与马尔可夫链预测理论相结合,提出一种适应轨道系统的改进灰色-马尔可夫链组合预测模型.新模型较好地处理了轨道系统内部各种不确定因素的影响,并能够充分挖掘历史数据给予的信息.应用新模型对轨道质量指数TQI进行实例计算,表明其具有很好的预测精度.The development of track irregularity is influenced by many factors such as track structures, loads and natural factors, and the development process shows characteristics of trend and randomness. Based on the combination of GM （ 1, 1） prediction theory and Markov prediction theory, the modified Grey-Markov non-equal interval prediction model is established as a new track irregularity development model in this paper. The influences of uncertain factors in track system can be dealt with well in this model, and the information hidden in historical data can be well excavated. By using this model, TQI is predicted with an example and the results show good prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：轨道不平顺 轨道质量指数 灰色模型 马尔可夫链 发展预测 非等时距 

分 类 号：U213.2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]