货物周转量与经济发展关系研究  

Study on Relations Between Freight Turnover and Economic Development

作　　者：梁肖[1] 胡春平[1] 钱堃[1] 毛保华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《物流技术》2011年第6期49-53,共5页Logistics Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70971010);基本科研业务费项目(2009JBZ012);北京市教委产学研联合博士生培养基地建设项目(BJ2009-04)

摘　　要：分析了货物周转量的主要影响因素,以6个经济指标作为解释变量,通过相关性分析,得到各指标变量与货物周转量的相关系数;同时运用主成分分析,构造了货物周转量与国内生产总值(GDP)之间的线性回归模型;并对建国以来我国货物周转量同GDP关系的阶段性特征予以分析。数学模型实证检验结果表明:各个经济发展阶段,货物周转量同GDP均呈现线性关系,并且随着经济的发展,单位GDP增长所需的货物周转量呈现出减小的趋势。Freight turnover, as one of the most important indices for transport productivity, is closely related to economic development. In this paper, the main factors which influence freight turnover are analyzed, six economic indices are taken as explanatory variables and the correlation coefficients between freight turnover and the variables are obtained through correlation analysis. A linear regression model between freight turnover and gross domestic production （GDP） is formulated using principal component analysis＇, according to which, the periodic characteristics of relationship between freight turnover and GDP of China since 1949 are analyzed. The results indicate that the relationship between freight turnover and GDP is linear in each economic period and the freight turnover required for unit GDP growth decreases against the development of economy.

关 键 词：货物周转量 GDP 回归分析 运输经济 

分 类 号：F512.9[经济管理—产业经济]