卫星通讯系统的可靠性评估  

Evaluation for Satellite Communications System Reliability

作　　者：王琳[1] 师义民[1] 袁修国[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学应用数学系,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2011年第9期75-78,共4页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70471057);陕西省教育厅自然科学基金(03JK065)

摘　　要：针对卫星通讯系统可靠性评估试验大多采用有缺失数据的样本,导致模型变得越来越复杂,传统的可靠性分析法变得很难实现的现状,为了提高通信数据精度,保证可靠性,提出了运用Bayes方法研究系统可靠性仿真技术,为评估通讯系统可靠性提供了一种新方法,方法能有效解决数据缺失场合和部件寿命分布中两参数都未知的情况下,解析方法难以处理的系统可靠性估计难题。算法不仅得到传统的可靠性指标而且还得到预测值的仿真结果,为评估卫星通讯系统提供了动态依据。给出了仿真算法及步骤,最后通过实例进行仿真。经与真值比较,结果验证了通讯系统可靠性评估的正确性和可行性。Because reliability evaluation tests of satellite communication system adopt samples with missing data, thus resulting in more complicated model, the traditional reliability analyzing methods become difficult to meet the re- quirements. A new method for system reliability evaluation is proposed by using Bayes method. The algorithm can ef- fectively solve the problem of reliability analysis when two parameters are both unknown with missing data, which is scarcely possible by using analytical method. And the algorithm can get not only traditional performance but also the prediction simulation results, and offers dynamic data for designing satellite communications system. The steps of simulation algorithm are given. The validity and feasibility of Bayes simulation is verified by comparing with true val-

关 键 词：卫星通讯系统 可靠性 缺失数据 贝叶斯估计 预测 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]