变化环境下城市需水量影响因子识别  

Discerning influence factors of urban water demand under changing environment

作　　者：黄德治[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省水利电力勘测设计研究院,广州510635

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2012年第3期140-145,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579052)

摘　　要：气候变化和人类剧烈活动正深刻影响着水资源供需系统,然而需水量影响因素众多,因此如何量化需水量和各类影响因子之间的关系,从而识别出主要的影响因子是需水预测一个重要的研究方向。以东莞为研究对象,建立了支持向量机(SVM)和BP神经网络需水预测模型,并将东莞市的需水量影响因子分为社会因子、经济因子和气候因子3类,分别采用不同的影响因子作为驱动,对东莞市需水量进行预测,结果显示经济类影响因子是东莞市需水量最主要的驱动力,且社会因子与气候因子与需水量也有一定的响应关系。Dramatic climate changes and human activities have had a profound impact on the supply and demand system of water re- sources, however there are numerous factors which influencing water demand, therefore it＇s an important research direction that how to quantify the response relationships between water demand and various influence factors, thus discern the chief factors. Taking Dongguan city as study object, the influence factors of water requirement are divided into climate factors, social factors and economi- cal factors, and selecting different factors to establish SVM and BP forecasting models. Study proclaims that economical factors are the principal driving force, also there are response relationships between climate {actors. social {actors and water demand.

关 键 词：城市需水量 预测 BP神经网络 支持向量机 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]