民机持续适航事件风险评估流程研究  

Occurrence Risk Analysis Process and Methods during Continuing Airworthiness of Civil Aircraft

作　　者：王冠茹[1] 孙有朝[1] 李龙彪[1] 辛慧秋[2] 李扬[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]上海飞机设计研究院,上海201210

出　　处：《民用飞机设计与研究》2012年第3期29-32,72,共5页Civil Aircraft Design & Research

摘　　要：在民用飞机持续适航阶段,由于存在设计缺陷和制造缺陷,操作条件或环境条件超出设定的标准,可能出现影响航空器安全运行的事件。给出了民用飞机持续适航事件定义及来源,根据风险管理理论建立了民机持续适航阶段事件风险评估的流程。引入事件严重度指数和发生概率指数概念,给出计算方法,在此基础上得到事件风险水平。当事件风险处于不可接受或不可容忍范围内时,借助概率统计和安全性分析方法详细评估事件导致因素的严重性和发生的可能性,判断事件对单架飞机和整个机队的影响程度。During the operation of civil aircraft, occurrences which affect the operation safety may exist due to de- sign, manufacturing defects, the exceeding operation and environment condition. Presents the sources and classifi- cation of occurrence by the definition in the continued airworthiness. The risk assessment processes have been es- tablished based on the risk management theory. The severity and probability parameter of occurrence are defined and calculated by the developed method in this paper. Then the risk level of occurrence is obtained. The quantita- tive risk assessment of aircraft and fleet is also given to assess occurrence effect when the occurrence risk under un-acceptable level.

关 键 词：民用飞机 持续适航 不安全事件 风险分析 设计与制造 

分 类 号：V225.2[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]