基于需求分层的高速铁路供给特性对客运分担率的影响分析  

Impact of High Speed Railway Transport Supply Characteristics on Passenger Transport Market Share Rate Based on Demand Dividing

作　　者：张守帅[1] 马驷[1] 马擎[1] 罗佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2013年第1期96-100,107,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

摘　　要：高速铁路运输供给的两个核心要素为票价和运营速度,为细化分析其对不同旅客出行方式选择的影响,根据需求的两个主要特性即收入和出行距离对旅客进行层次划分。运用非集计离散选择模型,以出行时间、费用收入比为特性变量,分别对不同收入层次旅客建立效用函数并应用Logit模型求出相应的分担率函数。以票价和运营速度为自变量,分析其对不同层次旅客出行选择影响的程度和变化规律,为高速铁路运营策略调整提供参考。Fare and operation speed are two key elements of high speedrailway transport supply, in order to analyze it＇s impact on the travel choice behavior of passengers, the passengers were divided into different levels by income and travel distance, which are the two main characteristics of passenger demand. Using MNL model and formulating an utility function taking the ratio of cost-to-income and travel time as chosen variables, appropriate contribution rate functions were established. Using ticket price and operational speed as independent variables, the contribution rate curves of different passenger levels could be gained. Corresponding proposal for the operation mode of passenger railway was raised according to the analysis of the curves.

关 键 词：MNL模型 需求分层 票价 运营速度 

分 类 号：U293[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]