出行量预测不确定下基于灵敏度分析的拥挤收费定价模型  

Congestion Pricing Model Based on the Sensitivity Analysis under Uncertainty in the Travel Volume Forecast

作　　者：罗朝晖[1] 韦增欣[2] 王松华[1] 

机构地区：[1]百色学院数学与计算机信息工程系,广西百色533000 [2]广西大学数学与信息科学学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第4期17-25,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(10761001);2011年度广西教育厅科研项目(201103YB129);2012年度广西高校优秀人才资助项目

摘　　要：拥挤收费是改善城市交通的有效手段.对拥挤收费定价的研究方法之一,就是针对固定的出行量进行收费设计.由于出行量预测不确定的因素,应针对长期出行量预测不确定的情况,利用灵敏度分析的方法,对拥挤收费定价的问题进行研究.首先研究了出行者出行的广义费用,然后考虑出行者的出行决策及出行量预测不确定的因素,给出一个拥挤收费定价模型,为交通管理者提供理论依据.Congestion charging is an effective approach to improve the urban transportationand one of the methods to study the congestion pricing is to design the charging according to the fixed traffic volume. Because of the uncertainty in the traffic volume forecast, the congestion pricing is studied by making use of the sensitivity analysis in view of the longterm uncertainty in the traffic volume forecast. First, the traveler＇s generalized cost in transportation is studied and then the traveler＇s travel decision and the uncertainty in the traffic volume forecast are also considered to give a congestion pricing model and provide the transportation managers with a theoretical basis.

关 键 词：拥挤收费 广义费用 灵敏度分析 多模式交通网络 出行量预测 

分 类 号：O221[理学—运筹学与控制论] U491[理学—数学]