线上消费者评论如何影响产品销量?——基于在线图书评论的实证研究  

How Do Online Consumer Reviews Influence Product Sales?——An Empirical Study Based on Online Book Reviews

作　　者：龚诗阳[1] 刘霞[1] 赵平[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第6期171-183,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"体验分享对品牌至爱的影响机制:基于分享现实理论的研究"(71102009);"中国区域市场品牌竞争与企业绩效之空间数据模型与实证研究"(71102007)

摘　　要：消费者在购买产品或服务时,总是希望借鉴他人的评价。信息技术的发展为企业提供了一个建立和管理线上消费者评论的平台。那么,线上消费者评论究竟能否影响产品的销量?应该从哪几个维度出发来衡量线上评论的作用?不同维度的效果又是怎样随产品生命周期而动态变化的?本文通过对当当网上3200多万条图书评论的大样本面板数据进行实证分析,发现线上消费者评论对图书的销量有显著的影响。其中,评论数量和评论效价对销量有显著的正向影响,评论差异有显著的负向影响。并且,线上评论的影响随产品生命周期而逐步减弱。当产品处于生命周期的早期,评论数量、评论效价和评论差异的影响均非常显著;而当产品处于生命周期的中后期,仅有评论数量还产生重要的作用。Consumers always refer to others’ opinions when making purchase decisions,especially in case of experience goods.With the advance of information technology and platforms,firms are provided with opportunities as well as challenges to initiate and manage online consumer reviews.Several key questions emerge in the process： can online consumer reviews influence the product sales？ If so,how should we measure the impact？ What’s the dynamics of the impact across different stages of a product life cycle？ Based on a large-sample panel data of more than 32 million online book reviews from dangdang.com,the leading online bookseller in China,we find that online consumer reviews have a significant impact on book sales.Specifically,both volume and valence of the consumer reviews have positive impact on sales,while the variance shows negative effect.In addition,the effect of online consumer reviews gradually declines across the product life cycle.In the early stage of the product life cycle,the volume,valence and variance of reviews all show significant impacts.When it comes to the later stage,only volume has significant impact.

关 键 词：线上消费者评论 网络口碑 产品生命周期 口碑营销 

分 类 号：F713.50[经济管理—市场营销]