诱增交通量的实证分析  

Empirical Analys of Induced Traffic

作　　者：吴家伟[1] 赵胜川[1] 何南[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学交通运输学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2013年第5期1-5,共5页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50978046)

摘　　要：通过实证研究尝试预测考虑诱增交通量的交通需求预测方法,明确了诱增交通量的定义,在阐述了诱增出行和诱增交通量的关系的基础上,以大连东北快速路为例,通过在传统的四阶段模型(交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分、交通分配)中导入"可达性(accessibility)变量",建立具有反馈构造的交通需求预测模型,通过计算最终得出由于新建东北快速路而产生约10.6%车公里的诱增交通量,证实了诱增交通量的存在.Aiming at forecasting methods of traffic demand considering induced traffic through empirical re- search, the definition of induced traffic is clarified based on illustrating the relation between induced trips and induced traffic, through inserting a variable of accessibility into the traditional four-step model. Taking the Northeast Expressway in Dalian as an example, a travel demand forcasting model is established with feedback structure. With this model,it is found that the newly built Northeast Expressway leads to 10.6% vehicle-kilo- meter induced traffic, which proves the existence of induced travel demand.

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 诱增交通量 反馈四阶段模型 可达性 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]