土地批租制下房地产资产价值及其市场风险研究  

Analysis on Real Estate Asset Value and Market Risk from the Perspective of Land Leasing System

作　　者：程大涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2014年第1期69-80,共12页China Industrial Economics

摘　　要：土地批租制下商品房资产价值中所含的土地使用权价值小于其资产内在价值,且随出让年限减少而逐年递减直至出让期限届满时归零。本文通过出让土地使用权价值变化规律分析,揭示商品房资产价值前期在经济因素作用下背离其基础价值上涨、后期受使用权剩余年限制约快速贬值直至期限届满时趋零的运行轨迹与机理,并分析土地使用权"剩余年限当量"变化对商品房市场资产价值的影响,发现出让土地供应增量递减会加快商品房市场资产贬值;基于2003—2011年省际面板数据的实证研究表明,由经济基本面决定的商品房均衡价格不受土地使用权剩余年限制约,存在背离其资产价值持续上涨趋势,表明中国房地产市场存在系统性风险。本文认为,以年租制取代批租制,可以改变出让土地商品房资产价值构成,抑制市场价格非理性上涨趋势,从根本上消除商品房市场价格与资产价值背离的系统性风险,同时使以商品房历年评估价格为基数征收房地产税更具法理基础。In the land leasing system, the value of the land use rights is not only less than the intrinsic value of land assets, but also is diminishing with a reduction in transfer period, and is finally reduced to zero in expiry of the transfer period. By analyzing the value variation of the land use rights, this article reveals the mechanism and running track of the value of real estate assets： at beginning it is a departure from the appreciation in its basic value driven by the economic factors, and later it depreciates rapidly after the land transfer due to time limit of the use rights in the remaining life till zero at the expiration of the period granted. This paper analyzes the impact of land use rights ＂remaining life equivalent＂ changing in the value of the assets of the real estate market as a whole, and has found that diminishing incremental transfer of land supply will accelerate the depreciation of the value of assets. The empirical research based on inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2011 shows that the equilibrium price of real estate is not decided by the economic fundamentals of land use rights over the remaining life constraints, and there is a rising trend away from the value of real estate assets. From the perspective of the leased land use rights, there is a great systematic risk in China＇s real estate market. The author believes that to replace the leased system with rent system can change the value of the assets constituting of the transfer land housing and curb irrational market prices rising trend so as to fundamentally eliminate systemic risk in housing market, and at the same time it provides us with a legal basis to levy real estate taxes based on evaluation in real estate prices over the years.

关 键 词：批租制 土地使用权价值 房地产价值 剩余年限当量 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]