人力资本导向的广东省职业院校改革——系统动力学仿真与政策建议  

The Reform of Vocational Colleges in Guangdong Province Oriented by Human Capital Theory——The System Dynamics Emulation and Policy Proposal

作　　者：肖翠云[1] 袁明智[1] 

机构地区：[1]东莞职业技术学院,广东东莞523808

出　　处：《职业技术教育》2014年第4期25-29,共5页Vocational and Technical Education

基　　金：广东省高等职业技术教育研究会项目<基于人力资本导向的职业院校社会功能研究>(GDGZ12Y092);主持人:袁明智

摘　　要：通过系统动力学模型构建职业教育、地区经济发展及人力资本需求的系统影响模型，研究不同发展情景下市场对职业院校培养的人力资本需求变动情况及政府与职业院校在未来可采取的措施，得出如下结论：一是产业结构调整能够为未来职业院校培养的劳动力提供巨大容纳空间，未来20年广东省每年对职业院校培养的人才需求量约为40-70万人；二是从中长期来看，职业院校必须提升人力资本质量，通过量身定制式培养使市场每年增加约20万职业院校毕业生的就业需求量。The core of human capital is to enhance the quality of population through investing on education. By means of system dynamics, this paper established the effect system model, which is demanded by vocational education, regional economic development and human capital needs. It studies the changes of market demand on human capital cultivated by vocational education in different development situations, and the measures that the governments and vocational colleges can take in the future. According to the simulation, we can draw the following conclusions： Firstly, the adjustment of in- dustrial structure can accommodate huge space for the labors trained by vocational colleges in future, and Guangdong province annually demands for about 40-70 million talents trained by vocational colleges in the next 20 years. Secondly, in the medium and long run, vocational colleges must improve the quality of human capital, and increase the market＇s demand for vocational college graduates with about 200,000 each year through customized training.

关 键 词：人力资本 职业院校 系统动力学 仿真 广东 

分 类 号：G719.21[文化科学—职业技术教育学]