基于累积前景理论的随机异质道路网配流模型  

Traffic Assignment Model Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory for Stochastic Road Network with Heterogeneous Users

作　　者：吕彪[1] 刘海旭[2] 蒲云[1,2] 王恪铭[1] 郭茜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学峨眉校区,四川峨眉山614202 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2015年第1期173-182,共10页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278429)

摘　　要：针对出行者择路行为的有限理性和风险取向的差异性,将出行者分为4类:分别以可靠度低于50%的出行时间预算、期望出行时间、可靠度高于50%的出行时间预算和超预算期望出行时间作为选择路径的参考点.推导了需求服从对数正态分布、路段通行能力服从均匀分布条件下各类出行者的前景值计算公式,建立了用等价变分不等式表示的均衡模型.算例结果表明,累积前景理论参数设置对配流具有重要影响,随着收益敏感系数的增大,各类出行者的路径前景均呈增大趋势,且第3、4类出行者比第1、2类出行者变化更显著;随着损失敏感系数和损失规避系数的增大,各类出行者的路径前景均呈减少趋势,且第1、2类出行者比第3、4类出行者变化更显著;随着感知概率系数的增大,第1、2类出行者的路径前景呈减小趋势,而第3、4类出行者的路径前景呈增大趋势.Due to travelers＇ bounded rationality and their differences of risk taking behaviors in route choice, the travelers were divided into four types, who respectively adopted travel time budget （travel time reliability being less than 50% ）, expected travel time, travel time budget （travel time reliability being more than 50% ）, and mean-excess travel time as their reference point for route choice. The calculation formulas of the prospect value for four types of travelers when the traffic demand follows a log-normal distribution and the link capacity follows a uniform distribution were derived, and a user equilibrium model was built and formulated as an equivalent variational inequality. The experimental results show that the parameter setting of cumulative prospect theory would have a great impact on the traffic assignment. Specifically, the route prospects of all types of travelers tend to increase with an increase in the gain sensitivity coefficient, and the change of the third and fourth types of travelers is more significant than that of the first and second types of travelers; the route prospects of all types of travelers tend to decrease with an increase in the loss sensitivity coefficient and the loss aversion coefficient, and the change of the first and second types of travelers is more significant than that of the third and fourth types of travelers; as the perception probability coefficient increases, the route prospects of the first and second types of travelers tend to decrease but that of the third and fourth types of travelers tend to increase.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通分配 累积前景理论 变分不等式 出行时间预算 超预算期望出行时间 有限理性 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]