台风影响下的航线网络稳定性问题研究  

Research on Airline Network Stability Under the Condition of Typhoon

作　　者：杜婧[1] 朱金福[1] 吴薇薇[1] 朱星辉[1] 徐顺志[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106 [2]南京航空航天大学金城学院,南京211152

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2015年第2期333-337,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:71171111;71201081);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(批准号:NS2014071);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划立项项目(批准号:CXLX11_0209;CXLX11_0208)资助

摘　　要：基于适应性Agent图的思想,结合航线网络实际特点,以航班延误为切入点,对航线网络系统运行的稳定性进行研究,并针对台风这一特定情景下的航线网络失稳情况进行仿真,从而提出反映航线网络稳定性的指标熵,来度量系统发生失稳行为的不确定性.结果表明,用熵作为反映航线网络系统运行稳定性的指标是可行的,若熵不为0,则系统失稳,发生航班延误;熵越大,发生航班延误的可能性越大,越容易导致航班延误的波及.Based on the thought of adaptive agent digraph,combine the actual characteristics of the airline network,take flight delay as a breakthrough point,the stability of airline network system is studied,and the simulation analysis is carried out on network instability focus on the scenario for a particular kind typhoon.Then the indicator of entropy is proposed to reflect the stability of the airline network and to measure the uncertainty of system instability.The results show that it is feasible to take entropy as the indicator to reflect the stability during the process of system operation of the airline network.System instability occurs and flights are delayed if the entropy is not zero.When entropy increases,the possibility of flight delay increases,and it is more likely to lead to the propagation of flight delays.

关 键 词：航线网络 航班延误 稳定性 Agent图 熵 台风 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济]