公交站点停靠时间预测模型研究  

A Prediction Model of Bus Dwelling Time at the Stops

作　　者：王旭[1] 陈旭梅[1] 寇伟彬 朱丽颖[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京市劳动保护研究所,北京100054

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2016年第2期55-61,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：交通运输部交通运输建设科技项目(2015318221020)资助

摘　　要：基于对北京市六环内各方向23条公交线路不同站点的现状数据采集,提出了一种公交站点停靠时间预测模型。分析了上下车人数、车内拥挤度、车门数及公交车台阶数等影响因素对公交停靠时间影响程度。根据分析结果,排除台阶数对停靠时间的影响。由于北京市3门铰接车与2门车的停靠时间存在一定的差异,考虑公交车门数对上下车时间的影响,得到3门车公交下车客流分配关系;然后选择上下车人数及车内拥挤度2个因素作为自变量,建立了乘客上下车时间预测模型;进而通过回归分析开门时间最长的车门乘客上下车时间与站点停靠时间的关系,选取二次函数作为公交站点停靠时间预测模型。最后,对2条不同公交线路的公交预测停车时间及实地调查停车时间进行比较,其标准化均方差分别为0.151 0,0.178 2,表明该模型具有较高可靠性,可应用于公交行程时间的研究。This paper develops a model to predict bus dwell time by analyzing field data collected from 23 bus lines within the sixth ring road of Beijing,China.The following variables,including boarding volume,alighting volume,degree of crowding,number of doors,and number of steps,are analyzed.Based on the analysis results,the number of steps is found to be insignificant and disregarded.The dwell time of two-door buses and three-door buses is quite different,a method for estimating boarding/alighting volumes for three-door buses is proposed.The boarding/alighting volumes and degree of crowding on the buses are selected to develop boarding/alighting time models.The relationship between the dwelling time and the longest boarding/alighting duration is estimated by using a regression analysis.A quadratic function is chosen to model bus dwelling time.The proposed models are validated with the field data from the two bus lines in Beijing.Compared to the actual dwell time,the predicted time from this model has the standard variances of 0.1510 and 0.178 2,respectively.The results show that the proposed model has a good prediction power and therefore is suitable for studying bus travel time.

关 键 词：交通规划 回归分析 客流分配 停靠时间 车门数 拥挤度 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]