车险客户生命周期价值研究  

The Research on Customer Lifetime Value of Auto Insurance

作　　者：李玉婷[1] 张琅[1] 姚吉呈 

机构地区：[1]中国人民财产保险股份有限公司,北京100022 [2]中国保险监督管理委员会,北京100033

出　　处：《保险研究》2016年第8期100-114,共15页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：在国际国内前沿的客户价值理论基础上，本文使用中国保险行业前八大财产保险公司①2014年山东省家庭车数据，首次在财险行业内提出和建立车险客户生命周期价值评估模型。首先，运用经典的风险预测模型，建立客户生命周期价值理论框架，对不同客户群价值差异原因进行理论与实证分析。结果表明，整体客户生命周期价值一般是当期价值的2—3倍，对单个客户存在当期价值、生命周期价值反转情况。其次，对客户动态保费收入、支出成本、客户续保率、贴现率和生命周期时间因子进行研究，并进行各要素的敏感性分析。其中，续保率变化对客户价值影响最大，其增长会对客户价值产生“乘数效应”。最后，探讨客户生命周期价值的应用价值和完善方向，以期为企业客户关系管理和财产险行业形成长期、科学的价值理念提供参考。Based on the advanced international and domestic CLV theory, we analyzed private car data of Shandong province in 2014 from the top 8 property insurance companies in China. This paper was the first to build a framework to develop and implement the Customer Lifetime Value（CLV） model which focused on the property insurance industry, particularly for the auto insurance. Firstly, combined with the classic risk predictive model, we established the theoretical framework of CLV and analyzed the differences between CLV and current value （ CV ） of different customer segmentations. The empirical results showed that the aggregate CLV was generally 2 -3 times as much as the CV. However,for an individual customer, reversion existed between the CLV and CV. Secondly, key concepts, such as dynamic premiums, costs, renewal rate, discount rate and the number of future time periods were integrated into the CLV framework, and a sensitivity study was performed to analyze contributions of each factors. Of them, the main factor that influenced the CLV was the renewal rate, and its growth had multiplier effect on the CLV. Finally, this thesis put forward some practical recommendations in order to provide some reference for companies＇ Customer Relationship Management （ CRM）, and for the property insurance industry to form a long-term, scientific, and value- driven business principle.

关 键 词：客户生命周期价值 当期价值 续保率 客户分群 

分 类 号：F840.32[经济管理—保险]