基于最大Lyapunov指数-校正的风电功率实时预测研究  

CORRECTED MULTI-STEP FORECASTING OF WIND POWER BASED ON MAXIMUM LYAPUNOV EXPONENT

作　　者：杨茂[1] 季本明 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林132012

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2016年第11期2778-2784,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2013CB228201);国家自然科学基金(51307017);吉林省产业技术与专项开发项目(2014Y124);国家留学基金(201507790001)

摘　　要：依据混沌相空间重构理论,提出基于最大Lyapunov指数-校正的风电功率实时预测模型,该预测模型将Lyapunov指数预测模型的一步预测值作为真实值加入到原序列中,对新构成的时间序列进行相空间重构和预测,从而实现了多步预测,并依据风电功率的物理实际约束对Lyapunov指数的预测值进行校正。以东北某风电场的实测数据为例,对风电功率进行实时预测,预测结果验证了模型的有效性。Based on chaos phase space reconstruction theory, corrected multi-step forecasting of wind power prediction model based on the largest Lyapunov exponent is proposed. In the model, the value of Lyapunov exponent forecasting is added to the original sequence, and phase space reconstruction and forecasting is made. Based on actual physical constraints of wind power, the forecasted value is corrected. Based on the measured data, a northeast wind farm as an example, the forecasting of wind power verifies the validity of the index.

关 键 词：风电功率 预测 相空间重构 LYAPUNOV指数 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]