基于混合选择模型的汽车共享选择行为研究  

Travelers' Choice Behavior of Car Sharing Based on Hybrid Choice Model

作　　者：鞠鹏[1] 周晶[1] 徐红利[1] 张俊婷[1] JU Peng ZHOU Jing XU Hong-li ZHANG Jun-ting(School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院,南京210093

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2017年第2期7-13,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71371094;71471084)~~

摘　　要：为了深入分析出行者的汽车共享选择行为,首先以技术接受模型和计划行为理论为框架,将对汽车共享选择行为具有影响的心理因素整合到传统的离散选择模型之中,形成混合选择模型.然后,基于南京市的实证调查数据,运用混合选择模型对出行者的汽车共享选择行为进行研究.结果表明,出行者对于汽车共享的感知有用性、感知易用性、行为态度、知觉行为控制等心理态度潜变量对其选择行为产生显著的正向影响,混合选择模型比传统不带潜变量MNL模型对实证数据具有更高的拟合度.In order to analyze travelers’ choice behavior of car sharing,this paper constructs a hybrid choice model for the choice behavior of car sharing,according to the expanded theory of planned behavior and technology acceptance model with variety of psychological factors which respect to the choice behavior of car sharing.Based on the empirical survey data of Nanjing in China,the integrated hybrid choice model is utilized to estimate these relationships.The results show that the psychological latent variables have significant positive impact on the choice behavior of car sharing,such as perceived usefulness,perceived ease of use,attitude and perception behavioral control.The outcome of estimation of HCM has a higher degree of fitting than the traditional MNL without latent variables.

关 键 词：交通工程 出行方式选择 混合选择模型 汽车共享 潜变量 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]