一类时滞Solow模型的动态周期波动分析  

Dynamic Cycle Analysis of a Solow Model With Time Delays

作　　者：李佼瑞[1] 张艳霞 

机构地区：[1]西安财经学院西安统计研究院,西安710100

出　　处：《应用数学和力学》2018年第3期334-342,共9页Applied Mathematics and Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11572231);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(16JK1301)~~

摘　　要：考虑到资本生产投资和污染治理投资的时滞性,为分析其对经济环境系统动态演化的影响机理,基于经典的Solow模型,引入环境净化和两个投资时滞参数.首次提出了带有环境净化的双时滞Solow模型,并分析了该模型的动态周期波动行为.结果表明:无论单个投资时滞还是两个投资时滞,均能诱发经济周期的产生;时滞越大,经济周期波动越强烈;通过调整投资决策可达到预期均衡目标,实现经济环境系统的周期稳定运行.Based on the classical Solow model,a dual delay Solow model was proposed for the first time in view of the capital production investment time delay,the pollution treatment investment time delay and the environment purification parameters,to analyze the dynamic evolution mechanism of the economyenvironment system. Then the dynamic periodic fluctuation behavior of the model was discussed. The results show that the economic cycle will be triggered by any individual investment time delay or both 2 delays;with the increasing of the time delay,the economic cyclic fluctuation will become more intense; the appropriate adjustment of the investment policy will help achieve the expected equilibrium objective,and the stable cyclic operation of the economy-environment system can be realized.

关 键 词：SOLOW模型 时滞 经济周期 HOPF分岔 极限环 

分 类 号：O211.63[理学—概率论与数理统计]