山东省“全面二孩”政策下学前教育及义务教育资源供求均衡分析  

An Analysis of the Demand and Supply Balance of Preschool and Compulsory Education Resources under the “Comprehensive Two-Child” Policy in Shandong Province

作　　者：李汉东 李玲 赵少波 LI Han-dong;LI Ling;ZHAO Shao-bo(School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Center for Education Policy of Faculty of Education, Southwest University/Southwest University Branch,CollaborativeInnovation Center of Assessment toward Basic Education Quality at Beijing Normal University, Chongqing 400715, China;School of Government, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京100875 [2]西南大学教育学部教育政策研究所/北京师范大学中国基础教育质量监测协同创新中心西南大学分中心,重庆400715 [3]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《教育学报》2019年第2期77-89,共13页Journal of Educational Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目"‘全面二孩’政策下基础教育资源配置风险预警研究"(项目编号:71742006);北京师范大学中国基础教育质量监测协同创新中心自主课题"基础教育学龄人口变化与资源需求动态监测研究"(课题批准号:2017-06-008-BZK01)的研究成果

摘　　要：利用人口预测模型预测了山东省2011—2050年的学前教育和义务教育阶段适龄人口的数量以及变化,在此基础上分析了"全面二孩"政策实施对山东省学前教育和义务教育需求的影响以及资源供求差异的变化情况。分析结果表明:山东省"全面二孩"政策实施导致的出生人口高峰将对未来学前教育和义务教育产生巨大需求,但山东省目前的基础教育资源远远不能满足这一需求。这一需求不仅是迫切的、巨大的,同时也是短暂的,山东省面临基础教育资源短期和长期均衡配置的两难选择。建立政府主导的基础教育资源管理体制;加快基础设施建设,增加资源供给;健全支撑保障体系,加强教师队伍建设;鼓励和吸引社会力量参与基础教育事业;建立省域统筹的基础教育资源共享机制等,以应对这一要求。The population prediction model was used to predict the number and changes of the school-age population in preschool and compulsory education in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2050. On this basis, the authors analyzed the changes in supply and demand of preschool education and compulsory education resources after the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy in Shandong Province. The results of analysis indicate that the birth population peak caused by the implementation of the “two-child” policy will lead to a huge demand for future pre-school education and compulsory education, but the current basic education resources are far from meeting this demand;this demand is not only urgent and tremendous, but also short-lived. Shandong province faces the dilemma of allocating basic education resources effectively in the short and long term. The authors put forward the following strategies to cope with the demand: establishing a government-led system for managing basic educational resources, accelerating infrastructure development and increasing the supply of resources;improving the support system and strengthen the quality of teachers;encouraging and attracting social organizations to participate in basic education;establishing the basic education resource sharing mechanism under the unified management of the whole province.

关 键 词：山东省 “全面二孩”政策 学前教育 义务教育 教育资源配置 

分 类 号：G521.9[文化科学—教育学]