基于时间序列挖掘的合成旅装备维修保障能力预测  

Prediction of equipment maintenance support capability of synthetic brigade based on time series mining

作　　者：宋星 贾红丽 王谦 赵汝东 SONG Xing;JIA Hongli;WANG Qian;ZHAO Rudong(Department of Equipment Command and Management,Shijiazhuang Campus,Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区装备指挥与管理系

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2020年第4期878-886,共9页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：军内科研计划项目（012016012600B12102）资助课题

摘　　要：针对现有的预测方法参数较多、精确度不高的问题,采用了时间序列挖掘的方法对合成旅未来一定时期内的装备维修保障能力进行预测。首先建立了指标体系,利用"装备云"平台相关数据对指标及装备维修保障能力随时间变化的序列进行计算;然后对多元时间序列进行线段化拟合、聚类、符号化表达、Apriori关联挖掘,通过差分整合移动平均自回归-支持向量回归组合模型及反向传播神经网络对合成旅装备维修保障能力进行预测,最后通过事例验证了本文所提出的方法。In view of the problem that there are too many parameters in the existing prediction method and the accuracy is not high,the time series mining method is used to predict the equipment maintenance support capability of the synthetic brigade in a certain period of time in the future.Firstly,the index system is established and the data of the"equipment cloud"platform is used to calculate the sequence of indicators and equipment maintenance support ability.Then,the segmentation fitting,clustering,symbolic expression and Apriori association mining are applied to the multivariate time series.The autoregressive integrated moving average-support vector regression(ARIMA-SVR)model and back propagation(BP)neural network are used to predict the equipment maintenance support capability of the synthetic brigade.Finally,the proposed method is verified by an example.

关 键 词：时间序列挖掘 合成旅 装备维修保障 APRIORI算法 差分整合移动平均自回归 支持向量回归机 预测 

分 类 号：E919[军事]