基于风险价值的危险品运输路径优化方法  

A Optimal Routing Method of Hazardous Materials Transportation Based on VaR

作　　者：魏福禄 刘攀[1] 李志斌[1] 孙锋[2] 郭永青[2] 赵利英 WEI Fulu;LIU Pan;LI Zhibin;SUN Feng;GUO Yongqing;ZHAO Liying(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;School of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,Shandong,China;School of Economics and Management,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096 [2]山东理工大学交通与车辆工程学院,山东淄博255000 [3]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,西安710048

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2020年第3期17-23,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71901134、51878165、71871057);江苏省博士后科研资助计划项目(2018K118C)资助。

摘　　要：考虑危险品事故发生概率和事故后果等主要因素,研究了危险品运输路径优化设计问题。通过分析不同危险值计算模型的性能特点,选用TR模型计算危险品运输的危险值,通过设定必要限制条件对KSP最短路径搜索算法进行改进,建立危险品运输最短路径集;考虑危险品运输事故发生概率受到多因素影响,具有一定的随机性和不确定性,引入金融领域用于风险管控制的风险价值理论,构建危险品运输路径风险价值模型,求解危险品运输网络在某置信水平下的最小风险值,从而提出了基于风险价值的危险品运输路径优化设计方法,并以长春市加油站为实例进行了模型检验和对比分析。结果表明:①随着置信水平的提高,对应的VaR值也在提高,最佳路径也会有所不同;②当置信水平在[0.9950,1.0000]时,最佳路径为路径6,此时不仅保证了路径最短,也保证了在可接受水平内的危险最小;③与传统最短路径模型相比,所建立危险价值模型能够不同置信水平下的危险路径选择方案,能有效降低运输危险。The problem of optimization design of transportation routes for hazardous materials is studied by considering the main factors such as the probability of accidents and their consequences of hazardous materials.By analyzing the performance characteristics of different hazard value model,traditional risk(TR)model is selected to calculate the hazard value of hazardous materials transportation.K-Shortest Paths(KSP)algorithm is improved by setting necessary restrictions,and a shortest path set is established.Considering that the probability of an accident in the transportation of hazardous materials is influenced by multiple factors and has a certain degree of randomness and uncertainty,introducing the Value-at-Risk(VaR)model used for risk management control in the financial sector.A VaR model is constructed to design the transport path of hazardous materials,and to solve the minimum risk value of hazard transportation network at a certain level of confidence.Thus,an optimal routing method of transportation routes for hazardous materials is developed.Taking Changchun gas station as a case study,the model is verified and compared with traditional models.The results show that:①With the increase of confidence level,the corresponding VaR value increases,and the best path is different;②When the confidence level is[0.9950,1.0000],the optimal path is path 6,which guarantees not only the shortest path,but also the lowest risk within an acceptable level;③Compared to the traditional shortest path model,the VaR model can effectively reduce the transportation risk.

关 键 词：交通安全 危险品运输 风险价值模型 路径风险值优化 KSP算法 DIJKSTRA算法 路径规划 

分 类 号：U492[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]