考虑出行链的城际旅客换乘选择行为研究  

Study on intercity passenger transfer mode choice based on travel chain

作　　者：马书红[1,2] 李阳[1] 岳敏[1] MA Shuhong;LI Yang;YUE Min(College of Transportation Engineering,Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management,Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]长安大学生态安全屏障区交通网设施管控及循环修复技术交通运输行业重点实验室,西安710064

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2020年第6期74-81,共8页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1601300);陕西省自然科学基金研究计划(2020JM-246);高等学校学科创新引智计划(B20035)。

摘　　要：为研究基于出行链的城际旅客换乘选择行为,揭示旅客个体社会经济属性、出行特性与心理潜变量对出行方式选择的影响,基于北京—天津—广州、北京—石家庄—广州两条运输通道的城际旅客调查数据,构建多指标多原因模型分析旅客社会经济属性与换乘舒适性、方便性、经济性三个潜变量间的因果关系.研究结果表明,性别、收入、有无小汽车对心理潜变量影响较显著.将潜变量作为解释变量加入离散选择模型中,构建基于出行链的混合选择模型,发现性别、职业、出发时间等对出行链的选择影响较大.最后对城际旅客出行链的选择进行预测,预测值与调查数据的误差在3%以内,表明考虑潜变量的模型具有良好的解释能力.In order to study the intercity passenger transfer choice based on travel chain,and to reveal the influence of socio-economic attributes,travel characteristics and psychological latent variables of passengers on the choice of transfer mode.Based on the intercity passenger survey data of Beijing—Tianjin—Guangzhou and Beijing—Shijiazhuang—Guangzhou,a MIMIC model is constructed to analyze the causal relationship between the socio-economic attributes of passengers and the three latent variables of transfer comfort,transfer convenience and transfer economy.The results show that gender,income,whether or not possessing a car have a significant impact on the psychological latent variables.Then the latent variables are added to the discrete choice model as explanatory variables to build ICLV model based on the travel chain.It is found that gender,occupation,and departure time have great influence on the choice of travel chain.Finally,the choice of intercity passenger trip chain is predicted,and the error between the predicted values and the survey data is within 3%;the results shows that the model considering the latent variables has great explanation ability.

关 键 词：交通运输规划与管理 出行链 出行方式选择 心理潜变量 ICLV模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]