综合安全评估的研究进展及展望  

Research progress and future of formal safety assessment

作　　者：张树凯 刘正江[3] 蔡垚[3,4] 史国友[3] 梁伟珍[2,3] ZHANG Shukai;LIU Zhengjiang;CAI Yao;SHI Guoyou;LIANG Weizhen(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Division of Cruise Business,CMSK,China Merchants Group,Shenzhen 518067,China;Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Policy Research Office,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100736,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]招商局集团招商蛇口邮轮事业部,广东深圳518067 [3]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [4]交通运输部政策研究室,北京100736

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2021年第1期152-158,共7页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51709165).

摘　　要：为提高海上安全和环保水平,国际海事组织采纳并倡导由英国提出的综合安全评估方法。综合安全评估现已广泛应用于国际海事组织规则制定、船舶设计制造、航运安全管理等多方面。本文通过回顾综合安全评估产生的背景及其在国际海事组织的发展历程、对比新旧综合安全评估指南,归纳了综合安全评估的最新进展。最后,分析了综合安全评估的未来发展趋势以及综合安全评估研究中存在的不足和亟待开展的工作。建议我国加强海事风险数据的统一管理并建立分享机制,为我国综合安全评估相关的国际海事组织提案提供技术和案例支持,在国际海事公约、规则、规范的制定过程中为我国争取更多的话语权。To improve maritime safety and environmental protection levels,the International Maritime Organization(IMO)adopted and advocated the formal safety assessment(FSA)proposed by British researchers.The FSA methodology has been widely used in the formulation of IMO regulations,ship design and manufacturing,shipping safety management,and other aspects of shipping.This study reviews the background of the FSA and its development by the IMO.Next,it summarizes the latest progress by comparing current guidance with previous guidance.Finally,it analyzes the future of the FSA and the deficiencies existing in related research.Meanwhile,it also suggests that China should strengthen the unified management of maritime risk data and establish a sharing mechanism,so as to provide provide the FSA with related IMO proposals that have both technology and case support.and to strive for greater national interest and discussion in the process of formulating international maritime conventions,rules,and standards.

关 键 词：综合安全评估 海上安全 风险分析 海事基础数据库 专家意见一致度评判 ALARP原则 GBS原则 安全水平法 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]