基于影响因子反馈校准的北川县滑坡地质灾害易发性评价  

Landslide Geological Hazard Susceptibility Assessment in Beichuan County Based on Feedback Calibration of Influence Factors

作　　者：范晨 刘志鹏[2] 曾超[2] 毕鸿基 周天伦 刘晓[1] FAN Chen;LIU Zhipeng;ZENG Chao;BI Hongji;ZHOU Tianlun;LIU Xiao(Three Gorges Research Center for Geohazards of Ministry of Education,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;China Communications Construction Company Second Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd,430056,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,湖北武汉430056

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2021年第5期121-130,共10页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42072314、41572279);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501304);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2014T70758);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M521500);中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司科技研发项目(KJFZ-2018-049-001)。

摘　　要：层次分析法是地质灾害易发性评价中常用的一种方法,但该方法在专家打分构建判断矩阵的过程中主要依赖于专家的主观经验,具有局限性。通过追踪各个影响因子评价曲线AUC值的叠加增长过程,提出一种对影响因子分级权重进行反馈校准的滑坡灾害易发性评价方法,从而实现对层次分析法的改进。将该方法应用于北川新县城周边地区的滑坡地质灾害易发性评价,选择坡度、坡向、岩性、距水系距离、距断裂距离和归一化植被指数作为6个影响因子,建立影响因子及其分级的判断矩阵,并依据各个影响因子评价曲线AUC值对该判断矩阵进行反馈校准。结果表明:校准后所划分的研究区滑坡地质灾害易发性分区结果比校准前有明显的精度提升,说明基于影响因子反馈校准的层次分析法可以提高传统层次分析法的预测精度,且具有方法简单、易于实现的优点。Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)is a common method in geological hazard susceptibility evaluation.However,the method mainly depends on the subjective experience of the experts in the process to build the comparing matrix.This paper proposes a feedback calibration method for the hierarchical weight of influence factors by tracking the superposition and growth process of Area Under Curve(AUC)values of each impact factor evaluation curve,so as to improve the accuracy of classic AHP.As validation,the paper applies the proposed method to the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in the surrounding areas of new Beichuan County.The paper selects six influencing factors,such as slope,aspect,lithology,distance to water system,distance to fault and normalized vegetation index,to establish the judgment matrix of influencing factors and their types,and calibrates the matrix according to AUC values of each influencing factor.The practice shows that the accuracy of the susceptibility zoning after calibration is significantly improved compared with that before calibration,which can provide reference for the prevention.The AHP based on feedback calibration of influence factors can improve the prediction accuracy of the traditional AHP,and has the advantages of simplicity and easy implementation.

关 键 词：滑坡地质灾害 易发性评价 层次分析法(AHP) AUC 反馈校准 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]