基于协同理论的铁路运输与城镇化质量耦合协调研究  

Study on the Coupling Coordinative of Railway Transportation and Urbanization Quality Based on Synergy Theory

作　　者：朱雷鹏 钱勇生[1] 曾俊伟[1] 广晓平[1] ZHU Leipeng;QIAN Yongsheng;ZENG Junwei;GUANG Xiaoping(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《公路工程》2022年第4期186-191,共6页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(15BJY037);国家社科基金青年项目(14CJY052);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(18JR3RA119);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(1606RJZA017)。

摘　　要：为研究铁路与城镇化之间存在的相互关系,通过构建铁路运输与城镇化质量多层指标体系,采用熵值法计算指标权重,借助耦合协调度模型对铁路运输与城镇化质量发展状况进行评价,并运用GM(1,1)模型预测了二者的耦合协调发展趋势,最后以陕甘宁三省为例进行实证分析。结果表明:目前陕西省的铁路运输与城镇化质量发展处于良好协调发展阶段,而甘肃省处于初级协调阶段、宁夏处于勉强协调阶段。同时GM(1,1)可以较好地预测二者耦合协调度的发展变化,为区域铁路运输与城镇化质量的协调发展提供参考。In order to study the relationship between railway and urbanization,this paper constructs a multi-level indicator system of railway transportation and urbanization quality,uses entropy method to calculate indicator weights,and analyzes the development status of railway transportation and urbanization quality with the aid of the coupling coordination model.Evaluation,and using the GM(1,1)model to predict the trend of the coupling and coordination of the two,and finally take the three provinces of Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia as examples for empirical analysis.The results show that the quality of railway transportation and urbanization in Shaanxi Province is currently in a well coordinated development stage,while Gansu Province is in the primary coordination stage,and Ningxia is in the barely coordinated stage.At the same time,GM(1,1)can better predict the development and changes of the coupling and coordination of the two,and provide a reference for the coordinated development of regional railway transportation and urbanization quality.

关 键 词：铁路运输 城镇化质量 熵值法 耦合协调度 GM(1 1) 

分 类 号：F532.8[经济管理—产业经济]