越江地铁盾构隧道管片结构应力混沌时间序列预测模型研究  

Prediction Model Based on Chaotic Time Series for the Yangtze River Crossing Shield Tunnel Segment Structure Stress

作　　者：范斌 张栲 郭谱[2,3] FAN Bin;ZHANG Kao;GUO Pu(Wuhan Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan,Hubei430070,China;National Digital Construction Technology Innovation Center of Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan,Hubei430074,China;School of Civil Engineering&Mechcs,Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan,Hubei430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉地铁集团有限公司,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中科技大学国家数字建造技术创新中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]华中科技大学土木工程与水利学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《施工技术（中英文）》2022年第20期23-27,共5页Construction Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71671072)。

摘　　要：盾构在始发、穿越风井,接收、联络通道等重要区段的施工会造成管片受力的变化,进而引起管片变形,严重时会出现裂缝,导致隧道内涌水涌砂现象发生。目前,管片结构应力监测技术日趋成熟,施工安全在一定程度上得到了保障,但在风险应对机制还不完善的情况下,利用预测模型来争取更多的风险应对时间,可更好地保证施工安全,减小事故造成的损失。以武汉地铁4号线越江盾构隧道工程实测数据为基础,通过数据的初步处理,指出管片结构应力时序变化一般规律。对管片结构应力的影响因素进行分析,从定性角度说明了在盾构掘进过程中,管片结构应力变化具有混沌性。结合混沌理论与BP神经网络,构建混沌时间序列预测模型,将工程实测数据代入模型,分析数据混沌性,并进行管片结构应力预测分析。The construction of shield in important sections such as starting, crossing air shaft, receiving and connecting passage will cause changes in the stress of segments, which will lead to deformation of segments. In serious cases, cracks will occur, which will lead to water and sand gushing in the tunnel. At present, the segment structure stress monitoring technology is becoming more and more mature, and the construction safety is guaranteed to a certain extent. However, when the risk response mechanism is not perfect, the prediction model can be used to gain more risk response time, which can better ensure the construction safety and reduce the losses caused by accidents. Based on the measured data of the Yangtze River crossing shield tunnel project of Wuhan Metro Line No.4, the general rule of the time series change of the segment structure stress is pointed out through the preliminary processing of the data. The influencing factors of segment structure stress are analyzed, and it is explained qualitatively that the change of segment structure stress is chaotic in the process of shield tunneling. Combined with chaos theory and BP neural network, a chaotic time series prediction model is constructed. The measured data of the project is substituted into the model, and the chaos of the data is analyzed, and the segment structure stress is predicted.

关 键 词：地铁 隧道 盾构 管片 应力 监测 混沌时间序列 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：U455.43[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]