“等可能性偏见”对初中生古典概率内容学习进阶的影响  

The Impact of Equiprobability Bias on Junior School Students’Learning Progressions of Classic Probability

作　　者：何声清 HE Sheng-qing(Mathematics and Science College,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学数理学院,上海200234

出　　处：《数学教育学报》2022年第6期52-59,共8页Journal of Mathematics Education

基　　金：上海市浦江人才计划项目——初中生数学核心概念学习进阶及其影响因素的模型构建研究(2019PJC079)。

摘　　要：以713名七~九年级学生为被试,考查他们持有的“等可能性偏见”对古典概率学习进阶的消极影响及作用机制.结果表明:学生的“等可能性偏见”总体上随着年级递增呈消退态势,其中九年级是一个关键节点;男、女生的“等可能性偏见”在程度上无显著性差异;“等可能性偏见”与各概率任务的得分水平均呈显著性负相关;“等可能性偏见”对学习进阶的作用机制是部分中介效果而非调节效果.对概率教学的启示有:遵循学生概率内容学习进阶的规律,精心设计数学任务和教学路径;渗透“概率有相对大小”这一观念及发展构建样本空间的具体策略是消解“等可能性偏见”的两个关键举措.The present study selected 713 students in the seventh to ninth graders as the subjects and analyzed the negative impact and its mechanism of equiprobability bias on learning progressions of classic probability.The results shown that:first,students’equiprobability bias generally decreases with the increase of grades,and the ninth grade is a key point;Second,there is no significant difference in the degree of equiprobability bias between boys and girls;Third,there is a significant negative correlation between equiprobability bias and the performance of each probability task;Fourth,the mechanism of equiprobability bias on learning progressions of classic probability is a partial mediating effect rather than a moderating effect.The enlightenment to probability teaching is as follows:on the one hand,conforming to the rule of students’learning progressions of classic probability and designing elaborated mathematics tasks and teaching trajectories;On the other hand,penetrating the concept that probability is calculable and developing specific strategies to construct sample space are two key measures to eliminate equiprobability bias.

关 键 词：等可能性偏见 古典概率 样本空间 学习进阶 中介效应 调节效应 

分 类 号：G632.0[文化科学—教育学]