“双重冲击”下世界油菜籽及其加工品生产、贸易格局变动分析  

Changes in production and trade pattern of global rapeseed and its processed products under the background of"double impact"

作　　者：王妍霏 马续桐 陈柯君 李辰龙 孙佳佳 王永刚 WANG Yanfei;MA Xutong;CHEN Kejun;LI Chenlong;SUN Jiajia;WANG Yonggang(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210003,China;School of Management Engineering,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,南京210003 [2]郑州航空工业管理学院管理工程学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《中国油脂》2022年第12期1-7,共7页China Oils and Fats

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2021BJJ099);郑州市软科学研究计划项目(2020RKXF0103);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生课程思政教改项目(2021YJSJGZX02);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生课程思政示范课程项目(2021YJSKCZX01);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生教育创新计划基金资助(2021CX13)。

摘　　要：近年爆发的贸易争端与新冠肺炎疫情,对世界油菜籽及其加工品的生产、贸易格局产生了一定影响,研究这一问题对保障中国油菜籽及其加工品进口供应链安全具有重要意义。总结分析了世界油菜籽及其加工品生产、贸易格局变动特征,实证分析了主要进出口国(地区)的显示性比较优势与贸易互补性,探讨了贸易争端与新冠肺炎疫情对世界油菜籽及其加工品生产、贸易格局的“双重冲击”。主要结论为:中长期看,“双重冲击”不会大幅改变基于比较优势的世界油菜籽及其加工品的生产、贸易格局;短期内,进出口大国之间的贸易争端将加剧国别替代,中国与加拿大、俄罗斯、澳大利亚的贸易规模将逐渐此消彼长;新冠肺炎疫情增加了贸易成本和供应链风险,对提升跨国物流与供应链绩效提出了更高要求。In recent years,the outbreak of trade disputes and the epidemic situation of COVID-19 has a certain impact on the production and trade pattern of rapeseed and its processed products in the world.The study of this issue is of great significance to ensure the security of the import supply chain of rapeseed and its processed products in China.The characteristics of changes in the production and trade patterns of rapeseed and its processed products in the world were summarised and analysed,the demonstrated comparative advantages and trade complementarities of major importing and exporting countries(regions)were empirically analysed,and the"double impact"of trade disputes and the epidemic situation of COVID-19 on the production and trade pattern of rapeseed and its processed products in the world was explored.The main conclusions are as follows:in the medium to long term,the"double impact"will not significantly change the production and trade pattern of rapeseed and its processed products in the world based on comparative advantage.In the short term,trade disputes between major importing and exporting countries will intensify country substitution,and the scale of trade between China and Canada,Russia and Australia will one fade and the other grow.The epidemic situation of COVID-19 has increased trade costs and supply chain risks,and put forward higher requirements for improving the performance of cross-border logistics and supply chain.

关 键 词：贸易争端 新冠肺炎疫情 油菜籽 菜籽油 菜籽粕 生产、贸易格局 

分 类 号：TS222.1[轻工技术与工程—粮食、油脂及植物蛋白工程] F746[轻工技术与工程—食品科学与工程]