限行政策下传统小汽车出行者出行方式选择  

Travel mode choice of traditional car travelers after implementation of driving restriction policy

作　　者：马壮林[1] 崔姗姗 胡大伟[1] 王晋 MA Zhuang-lin;CUI Shan-shan;HU Da-wei;WANG Jin(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China;Shandong Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250031,China;Yunnan Science Research Institute of Communication Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650011,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064 [2]山东省交通规划设计院集团有限公司,济南250031 [3]云南省交通科学研究院有限公司,昆明650011

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2023年第7期1981-1993,共13页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJCZH130);陕西省自然科学基金项目(2021JZ-20,2020JQ-397,2020JQ-399);长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102229304).

摘　　要：以西安市传统小汽车出行者为调查对象,采用行为偏好和意向偏好融合调查方法设计调查问卷,获取特定情景下传统小汽车出行者的出行方式选择行为;采用CHAID决策树方法划分传统小汽车出行者的类别,使用固定参数logit模型和随机参数logit模型构建不同群体限行后的出行方式选择模型,并对比这2个模型的优劣。研究结果表明:传统小汽车出行者分为仅有1辆车的青年出行者、仅有1辆车的壮年出行者、仅有1辆车的中老年出行者和有多辆车的出行者4类;随机参数logit模型的拟合效果更好;仅有1辆车的低收入青年和壮年出行者在限行日更倾向于选择公共交通出行;提高公共交通服务水平有助于吸引仅有1辆车的出行者在限行日选择公共交通方式出行,道路畅通有助于吸引有多辆车的出行者在限行日选择公共交通方式出行。研究结论可以为城市交通管理相关部门制定差异化的限行政策提供理论支撑。Taking traditional car travelers in Xi'an as the research object,a questionnaire combining the revealed preference and stated preference was designed to obtain the travel mode choice behavior of car travelers in specific scenarios.The CHAID decision tree method was used to divide the categories of traditional car travelers.The fixed parameter logit and random parameter logit model were used to establish travel mode choice models of different groups under the driving restriction policy(DRP),and both two models were compared.The results show that traditional car travelers can be divided into four categories,namely young travelers with only one car,middle-aged travelers with only one car,elderly travelers with only one car,and travelers with multiple cars.The fitting effect of random parameter logit models outperform those of fixed parameter logit models.The low-income young and middle-aged travelers with only one car are more likely to choose public transport under the DRP.Improving the service level of public transport is helpful to attract travelers with only one car to choose public transport on restricted days.Uncongested road is helpful to attract travelers with two or more cars to choose public transport on restricted days.The research conclusions can provide theoretical support for traffic management authorities to formulate differentiated DRPs.

关 键 词：交通工程 限行政策 决策树 随机参数logit模型 出行方式选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]