1961—2017年黑龙江大-暴雪天气形势诊断及其变化特征  

Diagnosis and Variation Characteristics of Heavy Snowstorm in Heilongjiang from 1961 to 2017

作　　者：杨艺萍 张丽娟[1] 王承伟[2] YANG Yiping;ZHANG Lijuan;WANG Chengwei(College of Geographical Sciences,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025 [2]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第4期211-218,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271136);黑龙江省自然基金重点项目(ZD2020D002)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2017年黑龙江省63个气象站逐日平均气温、降水资料和NECP再分析资料,利用趋势分析、突变检验、变异系数分析、方差分析及相关系数分析,对黑龙江省大-暴雪天气形势及其变化特征进行分析,研究表明:黑龙江大-暴雪降雪量和降雪日数平均值分别以8.95 mm/10 a和0.90 d/10 a的速率显著增加,二者在1987年气温突变年前后均存在显著差异,在空间变化上也均呈现出一致性,表现为东北部和西南部呈显著增加趋势,南部和北部增加趋势不明显;在年代际空间变化上均呈现出一致性,20世纪60年代,黑龙江大-暴雪降雪量和降雪日数主要集中在东南部,70年代主要集中在东部和南部局部地区,80年代以后范围逐渐向西部、西北部扩大。影响黑龙江大-暴雪天气的地面环流系统主要分为9个类型,按其频率出现的大小分别为:蒙古气旋型、日本海低压型、贝加尔湖低压型、低压发展型、倒槽型、低槽型、江淮气旋型、黄河气旋型和其他类型,其中20世纪60年代至21世纪初,日本海低压型和贝加尔湖低压型发生次数显著增加;各天气类型间的降雪日数和降雪区空间分布存在差异,每种类型降雪日数的空间分布与其降雪区基本一致,其中蒙古气旋型和贝加尔湖低压型这两个天气系统主要影响的降雪区域基本是大-暴雪显著增加的区域。Based on the average daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province between 1961 and 2017,and the reanalysis data of NECP,the heavy snowstorm weather and its variation characteristics are comprehensively analyzed by using trend analysis,catastrophic test,coefficient of variation analysis,variance analysis,and correlation coefficient analysis.Our results show that the average snowfall and snow days in Heilongjiang province increased significantly at the rate of 8.95 mm/10a and 0.90 d/10a respectively,and there were significant differences for both before and after the sudden temperature change in 1987.We also find that both snowfall and the number of snow days were consistent in spatial variability,showing a significant increasing trend in the northeast and southwest,but not obviously in the south and north.They also showed consistency in the interdecadal spatial variability,indicating that the snowfall and the snow days were mainly concentrated in the southeastern part of Heilongjiang in the 1960s,in the eastern and southern parts in the 1970s,and gradually expanded to the western and northwestern parts after the 1980s.There are nine main types of surface circulation systems that affect heavy snowfall in Heilongjiang Province.According to their frequency,they are Mongolia cyclone type,Japan Sea low pressure type,Baikal Lake low pressure type,low pressure development type,inverted trough type,low trough type,Jianghuai cyclone type,Yellow River cyclone type,and other types,among which from 1960s to 2000s,the occurrence frequency of Japan Sea low pressure type and Lake Baikal low pressure type increased significantly.Our findings show that the spatial distribution of snow days and snow areas are different among different weather types,and the spatial distribution of snow days of each type is consistent with its snow areas.The snow areas mainly affected by Mongolia cyclone type and Baikal Lake low pressure type are basically the areas with significant increase of heavy

关 键 词：地面环流形势 大-暴雪 气象灾害 变化特征 黑龙江 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P429