基于ARIMA模型的涡轴发动机排气温度预测  

Turboshaft Engine Exhaust Temperature Prediction based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：包志安 韩雅慧[1] 黄汉超[1] BAO Zhian;HAN Yahui;HUANG Hanchao(Army Aviation Collage,Beijing 101123,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军航空兵学院,北京101123

出　　处：《直升机技术》2023年第4期37-43,共7页Helicopter Technique

摘　　要：为保证直升机飞行安全、降低维护成本,通过监测发动机排气温度变化预测剩余寿命。首先在发动机实际外场使用数据中经采集、筛选、换算后得到有效分析数据;并将排气温度作为时间序列数据,从自身的相关性出发,通过历史数据预测未来趋势,建立了基于ARIMA模型的排气温度预测模型;运用该模型对某型涡轴发动机实际外场使用数据进行建模预测,结果显示短期波动较大,长期趋势精度较好。In order to ensure the flying safety of helicopters and reduce the maintenance cost,changes of the engine exhaust temperature were monitored so as to predict the remaining service life of helicopter.This thesis collected,screened and converted the actual outfield data of the engine so as to obtain the effective analysis data.Besides,the exhaust temperature was used as the time series data to predict future trends through historical data based on its own correlation.The exhaust temperature prediction model based on an ARIMA model was established.This model was then used to model and predict the actual external field usage data of a certain turboshaft engine and the results showed that the model had large short-term fluctuations and good long-term trend accuracy.

关 键 词：涡轴发动机 排气温度 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：V235.12[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]