基于时间序列分析的某地区中长期负荷预测研究  

Study on Medium and Long-term Load Forecasting Based on Time Series Analysis in a Region

作　　者：李校良 李梓萍 刘家正 Li Xueliang;Li Ziping;Liu Jiazheng(Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2024年第7期282-283,287,共3页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

摘　　要：随着我国经济蓬勃增长,城市不断扩张,用电需求迅速攀升,电力已成为各领域不可或缺的关键要素。精确的负荷预测可以最大化资源的有效利用,确保电力供应的可靠性,有助于促进电力体系的可持续发展。介绍了对时间序列分析方法,根据某地区电量负荷增长情况,提出了以时间序列分析为基础的负荷预测模型。基于某地区2003—2022年供电量作为历史数据,在时间序列法中采用ARIMA模型与指数平滑法这两种方法,对2023—2028年负荷量进行预测,为某地区未来电网规划提供数据基础。As China's economy grows vigorously and cities expand,the demand for electricity climbs rapidly,and electricity has become an indispensable key element in various fields.Accurate load forecasting can maximise the effective use of resources,ensure the reliability of power supply,and help promote the sustainable development of the power system.A load forecasting model based on time series analysis is introduced,and a load forecasting model based on time series analysis is proposed according to the growth of electricity load in a region.Based on the electricity supply in a region from 2003 to 2022 as historical data,two methods,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing method,are used in the time series method to forecast the load from 2023 to 2028,which provides the data basis for the future grid planning in a region.

关 键 词：中长期负荷预测 时间序列分析 指数平滑法 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]