云南高校图书馆联盟文献共享服务平台- SKILL

SKILL: 作品数：430被引量：508H指数：9; 导出分析报告; 相关领域：文化科学更多>>; 相关作者：秦佑国杨静宇曾菁尹翔辛涛更多>>; 相关机构：郑州云海信息技术有限公司苏州浪潮智能科技有限公司华东师范大学浙江大学更多>>; 相关期刊：更多>>; 相关基金：国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划湖南省教育厅科研基金江苏省自然科学基金更多>>

Classification analysis of prediction skill among ensemble members in MJO subseasonal predictions——based on the results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2024年第4期8-14,共7页Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu; supported by the National Key Research and Development Program [grant number 2022YFC3004203]。; 由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性...; 关键词：次季节-季节预测预报技巧热带大气季节内振荡

Decadal prediction skill for Eurasian surface air temperature in CMIP6 models: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2024年第1期9-13,共5页Yanyan Huang Ni Huang Qianfei Zhao; funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41991283].; 评估CMIP6年代际预测试验对季节平均SAT的预测技巧的结果表明:模式不能有效预测冬季和秋季SAT的年代际变率.IPSL-CM6A-LR和多模式集合平均对于春季SAT展现了预测技巧,其中对于变率的预测技巧好于振幅的结果.基于蒙古和我国华北地区的显...; 关键词：欧亚地表温度年代际预测 CMIP6 DCPP

Skill improvement of the yearly updated reforecasts in ECMWF S2S prediction from 2016 to 2022: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2023年第5期1-7,共7页Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu Yixu Zhang; supported by the National Key Research and Development Program [grant numbers 2019YFC1510002 and 2022YFC3004203]; 在2016年至2022年间,ECMWF次季节预测系统不断升级并逐年完成新的回报试验。本文考察该预测系统逐年升级带来的预测技巧提升潜力.从2米气温和降水来看,在起报之后的前两周内天气尺度上预测技巧表现出逐年稳定提升的趋势;在从第三周开始...; 关键词：回报次季节预测预测技巧 ECMWF

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2021年第6期60-65,共6页Xuan Zhou Lin Chen Janet Umuhoza Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Ran Wang; jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2019YFC1510004]and the LASG Open Project.; Rwanda is a landlocked country in central-eastern Africa.As a country highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture,Rwanda is vulnerable to rainfall variability.Observational data show that there are two rainy seasons in R...; 关键词：Intraseasonal oscillation Rwanda Intraseasonal rainfall variability Subseasonal forecast

Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000被引量：1: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2020年第4期338-345,共8页SHI Liang DING Ruiqiang; This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41975070];the Identification and mechanism study of global warming‘hiatus’phenomenon of 973 project of China[grant number 2016YFA0601801].; The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000.This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO.Moreover,the effects of extratropical ocean...; 关键词：ENSO predictability Northern tropical Atlantic SST Victoria mode South Pacific quadrupole

Improved EOF-based bias correction method for seasonal forecasts and its application in IAP AGCM4.1被引量：3: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2018年第6期499-508,共10页YU Yue LIN Zhao-Hui QIN Zheng-Kun; jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number2016YFC0402702];the Key Project of the Meteorological Public Welfare Research Program [grant number GYHY201406021];the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41575095 and 41661144032]; An effective improvement on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)–based bias correctionmethod for seasonal forecasts is proposed in this paper,by introducing a stepwise regression method into the process of EOF time...; 关键词：Bias correction seasonal forecast prediction skill IAP AGCM4.1

ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization被引量：5: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2018年第1期54-62,共9页SUN Qian WU Bo ZHOU Tian-Jun YAN Zi-Xiang; jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(grant number2017YFA0604201);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers.41661144009 and 41675089);the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorology)(grant number GYHY201506012); Model initialization is a key process of climate predictions using dynamical models. In this study, the authors evaluated the performances of two distinct initialization approaches--anomaly and full-field initializati...; 关键词：Near-term climate predictionsystem ENSO prediction anomaly initialization full-field initialization coupledgeneral circulation model

MJO potential predictability and predictive skill in IAP AGCM 4.1: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2016年第5期388-393,共6页WANG Kun LIN Zhao-Hui LING Jian YU Yue WU Cheng-Lai; supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110200];the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China[grant number GYHY201406021];the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575095,41175073,41575062,41520104008]; A 30-year hindcast was performed using version 4.1 of the IAP AGCM（IAP AGCM4.1）, and its potential predictability of the MJO was then evaluated. The results showed that the potential predictability of the MJO is 13 ...; 关键词：MJO IAP AGCM 4.1 PREDICTABILITY prediction skill

Application of a Derivative-Free Method with Projection Skill to Solve an Optimization Problem被引量：1: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2014年第6期499-504,共6页PENG Fei SUN Guo-Dong; provided by grants from the LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund;the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40905050, 40830955, and 41375111); Improving numerical forecasting skill in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences by solving optimization problems is an important issue. One such method is to compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP),...; 关键词：differential evolution algorithm spectral projected gradient algorithm CNOP Burgers＇ equation optimization problem

Assessing the Impacts of Initial Snow Conditions over the Tibetan Plateau on China Precipitation Prediction Using a Global Climate Model被引量：1: 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2014年第2期81-86,共6页CHEN Hong; supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421407);the Special Fund for Public Welfare (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY200906018);"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110201);the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2007BAC29B03); Two ensemble experiments were conducted using a general atmospheric circulation model. These experiments were used to investigate the impacts of initial snow anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) on China precipitati...; 关键词：Tibetan Plateau initial snow anomalies predictive skill precipitation

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