基于Monte Carlo的淡水产品中硫丹及其代谢物的风险评估  

Risk assessment of endosulfan and its metabolite in freshwater product by Monte Carlo simulation

作　　者：刘茜[1] 韩丽[2] 伊雄海[2] 曲栗[2] 邓晓军[2] 张舒亚[2] 盛永刚[2] 王敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学食品学院,上海201306 [2]上海出入境检验检疫局,上海200135

出　　处：《食品安全质量检测学报》2013年第4期1267-1273,共7页Journal of Food Safety and Quality

摘　　要：目的开展淡水产品中硫丹及其代谢物的定量风险评估研究,量化居民通过食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的风险水平。方法应用基于Monte Carlo模拟的@risk5.7软件,选择风险商表征,描述食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的膳食风险。结果普通居民通过食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的风险商平均值以及各百分位数风险商均小于1,且特殊人群高于普通人群,其中婴幼儿、儿童、青少年通过食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的风险商平均值以及各百分位数风险商是普通居民的2倍。结论居民仅通过食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的膳食暴露并不存在健康风险,但仍需要加强对环境中硫丹及其代谢物的监控,从而进一步降低居民通过食用淡水产品途径摄入硫丹及其代谢物的膳食风险水平。Objective To assess and quantify the risk of endosulfan and its metabolites via intake of freshwater products. Method Based on the application of@risk 5.7 software of Monte Carlo simulation, the risk quotient was selected to characterize the dietary risk of endosulfan and its metabolites through consuming freshwater products. Results The risk quotient of endosulfan and its metabolites in general population through intake of freshwater products were all less than 1. Moreover, the risk quotient of endosulfan and its metabolites in special groups were higher than that in general population. Particularly, the results in the groups of infants, children and youth were two times than those in general population. Conclusion The dietary ex-posure of endosulfan and its metabolites only from freshwater products’ consumption was impossible to bring about severe health risk for general population. But the monitoring of endosulfan and its metabolite in envi-ronment should be reinforced to further reduce the dietary endosulfan and its metabolite risk level of the gen-eral population.

关 键 词：硫丹 淡水产品 风险商 风险评估 

分 类 号：TS254.7[轻工技术与工程—水产品加工及贮藏工程]