考虑全过程时间的港湾式公交站能力研究  

Study of Bus Bay Capacity Considering the Whole Operational Time

作　　者：刘路[1] 毛保华[1,2] 梁肖[1,2] 朱宇婷[1] 赵欣苗[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学中国综合交通研究中心,北京100044

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2016年第1期115-119,142,共6页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划("九七三"计划)项目(2012CB725406);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71131001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2014JBM057)

摘　　要：为了给港湾式公交站的设计与管理提供参考,针对公交车运行时间对港湾式公交站能力产生影响的问题,首先采用全过程时间分析方法,将车站区域的运行过程分为5个阶段,使用概率论方法分析了重返延误与机动车车头时距之间的关系;在此基础上,考虑泊位的清空时间,基于M/M/c排队模型给出公交车站排队溢出概率的计算方法;最后从排队溢出及泊位利用率的角度改进了经典的车站能力模型,并对数值算例结果进行了曲线拟合。研究结果表明:港湾式公交站能力随公交车到达率的增大呈指数增长趋势;随乘车人数的增加呈幂函数下降趋势;车站能力与重返延误的关系符合二次函数的波动规律,当公交车到达率较低时,能力随重返延误的增大有所下降,此后溢出概率的增大对能力的影响更为明显,车站能力将随重返延误的增加而增加。To provide references for design and management of bus bay,aimed at the effect of bus operational time on bus bay capacity,the whole operational time at bus bay was classified into five phases.A probability approach was used to analyze the relationship between bus interflow delay and vehicle headway on the shoulder lane.Then considering the clearance time,the calculation method of failure rate at bus stop was proposed based on M/M/c queueing model.Finally,in view of queueing overflow and berth occupancy,the typical capacity model was improved.Fitting curves were made for numerical example results.The results show that bus bay capacity exhibits the exponential growth trend with the increase of arrival rate and a power function decline with the increasing number of boarding and alighting passengers. The relationship between bus bay capacity and interflow delay accords with the fluctuation pattern of quadratic function.When bus arrival rate is low,bus bay capacity decreases due to the increase of interflow delay.After then,the effect of the increasing failure rate on capacity is more distinct,and bus bay capacity will increase with the increase of interflow delay.

关 键 词：交通工程 港湾式公交站能力 概率论 溢出概率 重返延误 数值拟合 

分 类 号：U492.11[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]