基于不同样本容量构建原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的预测生长模型  

Establishment and Verification of Predictive Models for Staphylococcus aureus in Raw Milk at Different Sample Capacity

作　　者：于艳艳[1] 丁甜[1] 刘东红[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学生物系统工程与食品科学学院馥莉食品研究院,杭州310058

出　　处：《中国食品学报》2016年第5期155-160,共6页Journal of Chinese Institute Of Food Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-青年科学基金项目(31401608);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD29B07-02);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助

摘　　要：为建立金黄色葡萄球菌在原料乳中的生长模型,比较不同样本容量条件下预测模型的适用性,测定10,15,20,25,30,37℃条件下牛奶中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长数据,拟合建立最大比生长速率与温度之间的预测模型一;结合Com Base数据库中收录的相似环境试验数据,建立预测模型二。根据主要评价参数R2、Af、Bf等,对所建模型进行内部和外部验证。内部验证结果显示模型能够较好地预测微生物生长状况,而在外部验证中模型二的Af值,Bf值均优于模型一。一个简单的预测生长模型能够很好地预测相似条件下的微生物生长状况,然而存在普适性不高的问题。一个适用性高的可靠微生物预测模型应建立在大样本容量基础上。In order to establish predictive models of Staphylococcus aureus（S. aureus） in raw milk, and compare the applicability of two models with different sample capacity, S. aureus growth in milk at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 37 ℃were determined, the growth data was used to establish model one. Combined with the data records of S. aureus growth in Com Base, model two was established. Then the models were verified by several indices such as R2, Af, Bf. The internal validation results showed that the models were good to predict the growth of S. aureus in milk. External validation demonstrated that model two had a better statistic fitness than model one. Research indicated that a simple growth model can make a good prediction of microorganism＇s growth status at similar conditions, but its applicability is poor, so the establishment of a reliable and practical growth model should be based on large sample capacity.

关 键 词：原料乳 金黄色葡萄球菌 生长模型 样本容量 验证 

分 类 号：TS201.3[轻工技术与工程—食品科学]