洗钱对我国逃税规模的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Money Laundering on the Scale of Tax Evasion in China

作　　者：梅德祥 何鸿 李肖萌 Mei Dexiang;He Hong;Li Xiaomeng

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学财政金融学院,重庆400067 [3]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《西南金融》2020年第8期33-42,共10页Southwest Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“特定非金融领域反洗钱监管机制研究”(批准号:17BJY187)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2019年金融行动特别工作组在《中国反洗钱和反恐怖融资互评估报告》中强调加强特定非金融领域反洗钱监管。本文在分析逃税洗钱机理的基础上,以2004~2016年我国省际面板数据作为研究样本,运用洗钱-逃税模型和洗钱-经济发展-逃税模型,分别以大额交易、可疑交易为标准作为洗钱虚拟变量,分析洗钱对我国逃税规模的影响。研究结果表明:洗钱行为加大了我国洗钱高风险省市的逃税规模,因洗钱因素而增加的逃税规模分别为13917.28亿元和24028.55亿元,占高风险洗钱省市逃税规模的23.70%和45.60%;经济发展在洗钱与逃税规模的正向效应关系中,中介效应分别为12.4%和15.84%。本文意在为我国税收领域的洗钱风险识别及反洗钱监管政策提供决策依据。In 2019,the Financial Action Task Force(FATF)issued the"China Anti-Money Laundering and An⁃ti-Terrorist Financing Mutual Evaluation Report",which called for increased anti-money laundering supervision in specific non-financial areas.Based on the analysis of the mechanism of tax evasion and money laundering,this pa⁃per uses the inter-provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016 as a research sample,uses the money laundering—tax evasion model and the money laundering—economic development—tax evasion model,uses large transactions and suspicious transactions as virtual variables and analyzes the impact of money laundering on the scale of tax evasion in China.The results show that money laundering has increased the scale of tax evasion in high-risk money launder⁃ing provinces and cities in China.The scale of increased tax evasion due to money laundering factors was 13917.28 billion yuan and 24028.55 billion yuan respectively,accounting for 23.70%and 45.60%of the scale of high-risk money laundering provinces and cities.In the positive effect of economic development on the scale of money launder⁃ing and tax evasion,the mediating effects were 12.4%and 15.84%respectively.This article is intended to provide a basis for identifying money laundering risks and anti-money laundering supervision policies in China's taxation field.

关 键 词：逃税 洗钱 反洗钱 地下经济 洗钱风险 反洗钱监管 风险防范 中介效应 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]