生鲜猪肉中单增李斯特菌动态生长预测与数值模拟  

Dynamic Prediction and Numerical Simulation of Listeria monocytogenes Growth in Fresh Pork

作　　者：唐宇宏 刘丽敏 白莉 王晔茹 方婷[1] 李长城[1] 高一辉 TANG Yuhong;LIU Limin;BAI Li;WANG Yeru;FANG Ting;LI Changcheng;GAO Yihui(College of Food Science,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment,Beijing 100022,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学食品科学学院,福建福州350002 [2]国家食品安全风险评估中心,北京100022

出　　处：《食品科学》2022年第18期90-97,共8页Food Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(31601393);福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2021J01131015);福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(CXZX2020119A)。

摘　　要：构建生鲜猪肉中单增李斯特菌的动态生长预测模型。猪肉样品接种由3株单增李斯特菌制备的混合菌液,并置于3组波动温度(1~45℃)条件下培养,采用一步法对获得的生长数据进行分析,构建并比较由初级模型(Baranyi或Two-compartment模型)与二级模型(Cardinal模型)集成的组合模型。结果表明,Baranyi-Cardinal和Two-compartment-Cardinal模型均适合用于描述猪肉中单增李斯特菌的生长,由两者估计的猪肉样品中单增李斯特菌最低、最适、最高生长温度分别为0.94、38.37、45.36℃和1.03、37.96、45.58℃,最适生长速率分别为0.891 h^(-1)和0.858 h^(-1),最大生长浓度分别为9.07(lg(CFU/g))和9.09(lg(CFU/g));通过另设的4组动态生长实验和3组等温(4、20、37℃)生长实验对模型进行验证,分析表明,模型可以准确预测动态及等温条件下的单增李斯特菌的生长,预测曲线的均方根误差介于0.13~0.48(lg(CFU/g)),残差服从均值为-0.02(lg(CFU/g))、标准差为0.29(lg(CFU/g))的正态分布。最后,基于构建的模型开展生鲜猪肉家庭冰箱冷藏过程中单增李斯特菌的生长数值模拟,以证明模型潜在的应用性。本研究结果可用于猪肉中单增李斯特菌的生长预测及风险评估。The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic prediction model of Listeria monocytogenes growth in fresh pork.Pork samples inoculated with a three-strain cocktail of L.monocytogenes were incubated under three groups of dynamic temperature conditions(1–45℃)to observe the growth of L.monocytogenes.The growth data of L.monocytogenes were analyzed by the one-step method and fitted to two different primary models,Baranyi and two-compartment models and then to the Cardinal secondary model.The results showed that both Baranyi-Cardinal model and Two-compartment-Cardinal model were equally suitable to describe the growth of L.monocytogenes in pork.The minimum,optimum and maximum growth temperatures of L.monocytogenes estimated by the Baranyi-Cardinal model were 0.94,38.37 and 45.36℃,and those estimated by the Two-compartment-Cardinal model were 1.03,37.96,45.58℃,respectively.The optimum growth rate and the maximum growth density estimated by the Baranyi-Cardinal model were 0.891 and 0.858 h^(-1),and those estimated by the Two-compartment-Cardinal model were 9.07 and 9.09(lg(CFU/g)),respectively.Model validation was conducted by using another four groups of dynamic growth experiments and three groups of isothermal growth experiments(4,20 or 37℃).The obtained results showed the models could accurately predict the growth behavior of L.monocytogenes under both dynamic temperature and isothermal conditions.The root mean square error(RMSE)was between 0.13 and 0.48(lg(CFU/g)),and the residual error obeyed the normal distribution with a mean value of−0.02(lg(CFU/g))and a standard deviation of 0.29(lg(CFU/g)).At last,numerical simulation of the growth of L.monocytogenes in fresh pork under cold storage in a household refrigerator was conducted,showing the application potential of the models.The results of this study are useful for growth prediction and risk assessment of L.monocytogenes in fresh pork.

关 键 词：生鲜猪肉 单增李斯特菌 生长预测 一步法 数值模拟 

分 类 号：TS251.1[轻工技术与工程—农产品加工及贮藏工程]