铁路路基翻浆冒泥的参数敏感性及不确定性分析  

Sensitivity Analysis and Reliability Study on Influencing Factors of Mud Pumping in Railway Subgrade

作　　者：王威[1,2] 杨文豪 杨成忠[1,2] 吴宇健 郑明新[1,2] WANG Wei;YANG Wenhao;YANG Chengzhong;WU Yujian;ZHENG Mingxin(State Key Laboratory of Performance Monitoring and Protecting of Rail Transit Infrastructure,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Transportation Engineering,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学轨道交通基础设施性能监测与保障国家重点实验室,江西南昌330013 [2]华东交通大学交通运输工程学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《铁道学报》2022年第12期105-113,共9页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51908215);江西省自然科学基金(20212BAB204016,20202ACB202005);江西省青年科学基金(20181BAB216030);江西省高等学校科技落地计划(KJLD14038)。

摘　　要：为研究参数不确定性对普铁路基翻浆冒泥的影响,并从概率角度分析其发生的可能性,基于铁路路基翻浆冒泥计算模型,利用单因素法和极差法,分析普铁列车轴重、车速、土的固结系数、固结应力比及围压在一定维修计划周期内对路基翻浆冒泥的影响,发现三项土体参数的敏感度相对较小且彼此影响,可用土体强度参数统一表示。引入列车轴重、车速及土体强度参数的变异性和翻浆冒泥病害指标,构建铁路路基翻浆冒泥病害发生的极限状态方程,通过可靠度指标对计算参数变异系数的敏感性进行分析,讨论列车荷载振次变化下不同列车轴重和车速大小对路基可靠性的影响。结果表明,单因素分析和极差分析取得一致的敏感度排序结果为列车轴重>土体围压>车速>土体固结应力比>土体固结系数;受列车轴重、车速及土体强度参数随机性的影响,列车荷载作用下翻浆冒泥病害指标具有一定的离散性,近似服从对数正态分布;列车轴重及车速的变异性对普铁路基翻浆冒泥的影响较土体强度参数的变异性更为显著。In order to study the influence of the uncertainty of factors on the mud pumping in railway subgrade, and analyze the possibility of its occurrence from the aspect of probability, based on the calculation model of mud pumping in railway subgrade, the methods of univariate analysis and range analysis were used to analyze the effects of axle load of train, train operation speed, consolidation coefficient of soil, consolidation stress ratio and confining pressure on mud pumping. It is found that the sensitivity of the three soil parameters that is relatively small and affects each other can be expressed as strength parameters of soil. Afterward, the limit state equation of mud-pumping problem of railway subgrade was developed considering the variation of axle load of train, train operation speed and strength parameters of soil, meanwhile, the reliability analysis was carried out. The influences of the variation of axle load of train, train operation speed and strength parameters of soil on the reliability of the subgrade were discussed. The results show that the sensitivity of parameters obtained from univariate analysis and range analysis is consistent. The order of sensitivity is expressed as axle load of train, followed by confining pressure, train operation speed, consolidation stress ratio, and consolidation coefficient of soil. The index of mud pumping problem under the train load is discrete and approximately follows the logn normal distribution due to the influence of the randomness of axle load of train, train operation speed and strength parameters of soil. The variation of axle load and operation speed of train can affect the reliability of the subgrade significantly, while the strength parameters of soil have relatively small influence.

关 键 词：铁路路基 翻浆冒泥 振动孔压 敏感性分析 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：U213.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]