建成环境对老年人出行方式选择的非线性影响  

Non-linear effects of built environment on travel mode choices for elderly

作　　者：石庄彬 鄢春花 何明卫[1] 刘阳[1] 何民[1] SHI Zhuang-bin;YAN Chun-hua;HE Ming-wei;LIU Yang;HE Min(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650031,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,昆明650031

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2023年第1期49-63,共15页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(52102378、52202381);云南省基础研究计划项目(202201AU070148);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2022J0058);贵州省交通运输厅2022年度科技项目(2022-341-040)。

摘　　要：研究老年人的出行方式选择有助于更好地理解老年人出行行为,对提高老年人出行便捷性和可达性,构建老年人友好型社会和改善交通系统的公平性具有重要意义。本文基于2021年贵阳市居民出行调查数据,运用梯度提升决策树模型,研究老年人出行方式选择的决策机理,并深入挖掘公交站点辐射区内不同老年群体选择行为的异质性。结果表明:(1)出行特征是影响老年人出行方式选择最重要的因素,相对重要度达58.51%,其次是建成环境因素(35.49%),二者均远高于社会经济属性的相对重要性(6%)。(2)建成环境对老年人出行方式选择的非线性作用显著,其中老年人步行出行的距离阈值为3 km;老年人出行更多的是空间分散模式,而非以市中心为导向模式。因此,对老年人出行方式选择的干预在建成环境阈值范围内更加有效。(3)建成环境对老年人出行方式选择的影响不仅存在独立的非线性效应,不同的社会经济属性还会导致其存在群体差异。这些发现可为创建面向老年人友好的出行环境提供决策支撑。To better understand the travel behavior of elderly,it is crucial to study their travel mode choice,which is also significant for improving the convenience and accessibility of their travel and building an elderly-friendly society that improves the equity of the transportation system.Based on the residents’ travel survey data collected from Guiyang city in 2021,this study uses the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT) model to study the decision-making mechanism behind elderly people’s travel mode choice,aiming to explorethe heterogeneity of the choice behavior among different elderly groups within the buffer area of public transport stations.The three main modelling results are as follows:(1) Travel characteristics are the most important factor influencing elderly people’s travel choice,with a relative importance of 58.51%,followed by built environment(35.49 %),both of which present much higher relative importance than socio-economic attributes(6%).(2) The effect of built environment on the travel mode choice of the elderly is significantly non-linear.The distance threshold for the elderly to travel on foot is determined 3 km;the elderly travel is more in a spatially dispersed mode rather than a city center-oriented mode.Therefore,the intervention of built environment on the travel mode choice of the elderly is more effective in the threshold range.(3) Not only are there independent non-linear effects of built environment on the elderly’s travel mode choice but also there are different socioeconomic attributes that lead to group heterogeneity.These findings can provide support for building an elderly-friendly travel environment.

关 键 词：城市交通 非线性 梯度提升决策树 老年人 出行方式选择 建成环境 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]