基于分位数回归的轨道质量指数阈值合理性数据分析  

Data Analysis of Rationality of Threshold of Track Quality Index Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：何庆[1] 汪健辉 李晨钟 柳恒 王青元[4] 王平[1] HE Qing;WANG Jianhui;LI Chenzhong;LIU Heng;WANG Qingyuan;WANG Ping(MOE Key Laboratory of High-speed Railway Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;China Railway Eryuan East China Survey and Design Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000,China;China Railway Chengdu Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610031,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学高速铁路线路工程教育部重点实验室,四川成都610031 [2]中铁二院华东勘察设计有限责任公司,浙江杭州310000 [3]中国铁路成都局集团有限公司,四川成都610031 [4]西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《铁道学报》2023年第7期99-105,共7页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFB2602905);四川省科技计划项目(2023NSFSC1975);国家自然科学基金(U1934214)。

摘　　要：高速铁路轨道高平顺性是保障列车行车安全的重要基础,考虑到现有规范中针对轨道不平顺养护维修的局限性,需要对轨道动态不平顺管理值的合理性进行研究和改善。利用历史数据及统计方法挖掘轨道动态不平顺峰值管理值与均值管理值的联系,基于时间序列的异常检测与修正模型,通过分位数回归探究各项指标半峰值与标准差关系,并给出相应的均值管理建议值。结合7条不同工况线路的实测数据,研究结果表明:速度200~250 km/h线路建议采用80%及以上分位数的标准差作为管理值,而速度250(不含)~350 km/h线路建议采用95%及以上分位数的标准差作为管理值;相同时速线路、同一分位数下,若建议管理值越高,表明峰值与标准差的倍数较小,该线路状态较好,特别是单点不平顺超限的数量较少,不需要较严格的TQI管理值进行整体管理;反之,则表明单点超限可能较多,需要压低TQI管理值确保较低的峰值超限数量;对于5项不平顺指标,轨距出现峰值超限的概率最大,养护维修时需着重关注。The regularity of high-speed railway is an important basis for ensuring train running safety.Considering the limitations of track irregularity maintenance rules in the existing standards,it is necessary to study and improve the rationality of dynamic track irregularity management values.This paper utilized the measured data at different times and statistical methods to explore the relationship between the peak management value and the mean management value of dynamic track irregularity.Based on the anomaly detection and correction model of the time series,the relationship was explored between the half-peak value and the standard deviation of each index through quantile regression and the corresponding mean management recommended values were given.Based on the measured data of seven railway lines under different operating conditions,the results show that the standard deviation calculated by 80%and above quantiles is recommended as the management value for speed 200~250 km/h lines,while the standard deviation calculated by 95%and above quantiles is recommended as the management value for speed 250(not included)~350 km/h lines.Under the same speed line and the same quantile,the higher the recommended management value,the smaller the multiple of peak value to standard deviation,indicating the good maintenance condition of the line.In particular,the small number of single point irregularity over-limit does not require strict TQI management value for overall management.On the contrary,more single point irregularity over-limits,require lowering TQI management value to ensure a lower number of peak over-limits.For the five irregularity indexes,the probability of gauge peak exceeding the limit is the highest,and special attention should be paid during maintenance.

关 键 词：轨道不平顺 时间序列分析 分位数回归 阈值合理性 轨道质量指数 

分 类 号：U212.31[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]