湖南省人口与中等职业教育发展预测  

Forecast on the Population and Development of Secondary Vocational Education in Hu’nan Province

作　　者：安秀芳[1] 凌云[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学科技师范学院

出　　处：《职业技术教育》2008年第7期28-33,共6页Vocational and Technical Education

摘　　要：基于队列构成法预测2007～2020年间湖南省高中阶段适龄人口的变化情况，以及中等职业教育阶段在校生规模和专任教师需求量。预测结果表明：适龄人口处于波谷阶段；毛入学率总趋势呈先降后升特点；专任教师需求量呈单峰增长模式。预计湖南省中等职业教育发展趋势为：区域性生源相对短缺，招生规模发展势头良好，但仍不容乐观，要作好跨区域发展的协调工作。Forecasting the changing of population of high school age, student scale and demand for professional teachers of secondary vocational education level during the year 2007-2020 in Hu＇nan by queue composition method, and the results show that, population of the right age is at trough phase; overall trend of gross enrollment rate manifest the characteristics of beginning declining and later rising; demand for professional teachers embody single peak increasing model. Therefore, the development trend of secondary vocational education in Hu＇nan are： student sources of the region are relative short, scale of recruiting students is developing well but not optimistic, the harmonizing work for developing trans-regionally should be done well.

关 键 词：中等职业教育 人口 在校生规模 专任教师需求 湖南省 

分 类 号：G719.21[文化科学—职业技术教育学] G522.3[文化科学—教育学]