学龄人口变化对教师发展规模的影响——基于2020年前四川义务教育阶段学龄人口的分析  

The Influence of School-aged Population on Compulsory Education Scale in Sichuan Province: Based on an Analysis of Compulsory School-aged Population Before 2020 in Sichuan

作　　者：周洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川幼儿师范高等专科学校,四川江油621709

出　　处：《重庆三峡学院学报》2013年第1期138-142,共5页Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University

基　　金：四川省教育厅2010年重点科研项目(编号:10SA134)阶段性成果

摘　　要：2011—2020年,是贯彻落实《四川省中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要》的十年。科学地预测义务教育的规模,以巩固普九成果,促进教育资源的合理配置,将是一项非常有意义的工作。本文依据全国第六次人口普查公布的数据,对未来十年四川省义务教育学龄人口进行预测,并以此为基础对义务教育阶段的师资需求进行测算,以期细化教师发展的规模和目标,促进四川义务教育的均衡发展。The Long and Midterm Education Reform and Development Program of Sichuan Province will be carried out during 2011 and 2020.It is critical to correctly predict the scale of compulsory education scale to consolidate the achievement made in the national scheme,popularize the nine years＇ compulsory education,and allocate educational resource scientifically.This paper predicts the scale of school-aged population in the coming decade by using the sixth population census of China.And based on this prediction,this paper makes a budget of staff scale to refine the scale and the goals of staff development and develop Sichuan education on a balanced basis.

关 键 词：义务教育 学龄人口 教师数量 预测 

分 类 号：G40-052.2[文化科学—教育学原理]