单增李斯特菌在牛奶中生长曲线的拟合和预测模型的建立  

Growth curve fitting and prediction model developing of Listeria monocytogenes in milk

作　　者：邹宇[1] 胡立明[2] 胡文忠[1] 何煜波[1] 刘程惠[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连民族学院生命科学学院,辽宁大连116600 [2]空军勤务学院航空军需系,江苏徐州221006

出　　处：《食品工业科技》2014年第11期69-73,共5页Science and Technology of Food Industry

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD38B05);大连市科技计划项目(2012E13SF106)

摘　　要：通过生长动力学曲线拟合,建立牛奶中单增李斯特菌的生长预测模型。比较了5、15、25和35℃条件下Gompertz方程、Logistic方程和Hill方程的拟合情况,确定Gompertz方程为单增李斯特菌在牛奶中最优的初级模型。采用Belehradek方程描述温度对最大生长速率和延滞时间的影响,结果表明它们之间成良好的线性关系（R2分别为0.9721和0.9747）,并建立了相应的二级模型。对20℃条件下由预测模型构建的微生物生长动力学方程进行了验证,同时对模型的可靠性进行了分析,结果表明预测值和真实值的残差均小于0.2,模型的偏差度为1.04,准确度为1.13,表明建立的模型有效且可靠。在已知初始菌数的情况下,可以根据模型快速预测5~35℃条件下不同贮藏时间点单增李斯特菌在牛奶中的生长情况。In this paper, by fitted growth kinetics curve, the growth kinetics prediction model of Listeria monocytogenes（Lmonocytogenes） in milk was developed.Under different conditions （5, 15,25 and 35℃）, the fitting results of three models （ Gompertz, logistic and Hill equation） were compared and Gompertz equation was determined to be the optimal first order kinetic model of L.monocytogenes in milk.Belehradek equation was used to investigate that the effect of temperature on Vmax and Lag.The results showed that there was a good linear relationshiop among there parameters （ R2 were 0.9721 and 0.9747, respectively） .Meanwhile, the corresponding second order kinetic model of Lmonocytogenes in milk was also developed.When temperature was 20℃, the developed prediction model was verified and its reliability was also analyzed.The results showed that residuals of predicted value and measured value were all less than 0.2.Moreover, bias factor and accuracy factor of prediction model were 1.04 and 1.13, respectively.These results proved that the prediction model was valid and reliable.If initial bacterial count was known,according the prediction model, growth condition of Lmonocytogenes in milk could be predict rapidly at various storage time points under 5-35℃ conditions.

关 键 词：单增李斯特菌 牛奶 生长曲线 预测模型 

分 类 号：TS201[轻工技术与工程—食品科学]