原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的建立  

Predictive Modeling of Staphylococcus aureus Growth in Raw Milk

作　　者：李博[1] 满朝新[1] 赵凤[1] 杨士芹[1] 郎友[1] 蒋亚男[1] 姜毓君[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学国家乳业工程技术研究中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150086

出　　处：《食品科学》2011年第15期158-162,共5页Food Science

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04A08-13;2009BADB9B06);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(208036)

摘　　要：研究冬季、春季和夏季原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌在15、25、37℃条件下的生长情况,并利用Logistic模型和Gompertz模型对生长数据进行建模。3个季节的原料乳中,金黄色葡萄球菌的Gompertz模型方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.0936(冬)、0.1057(春)和0.1032(夏),而Logistic模型相应的参数值为0.1498(冬)、0.1926(春)和0.1857(夏)。通过模型参数比较表明,Gompertz模型比Logistic模型更能准确的描述原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长情况;同时,建立以温度为自变量的平方根模型,以此来预测原料乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长速率。In this paper,the growth of S.aureus in raw milk at 15,25 ℃ and 37 ℃ in winter,spring and summer was studied.The Logistic and Gompertz models were used to establish a model predict describing the growth of S.aureus in raw milk.The root mean square errors（RMSE） of the Gompertz model in winter,spring and summer were 0.0936,0.1057 and 0.1032,respectively.The RMSE values of the Logistic model were 0.1498,0.1926 and 0.1857 in three seasons.These results indicated that the Gompertz model can predict the growth rate of S.aureus more accurately than the Logistic model.Meanwhile,a square root model has been developed predicting the growth rate of S.aureus in raw milk as a function of temperature.

关 键 词：原料乳 金黄色葡萄球菌 数学模型 

分 类 号：TS201.3[轻工技术与工程—食品科学]